Evidence that Pacific tuna mercury levels are driven by marine methylmercury production and anthropogenic inputs.

Pacific Ocean tuna is among the most-consumed seafood products but contains relatively high levels of the neurotoxin methylmercury. Limited observations suggest tuna mercury levels vary in space and time, yet the drivers are not well understood. Here, we map mercury concentrations in skipjack tuna across the Pacific Ocean and build generalized additive models to quantify the anthropogenic, ecological, and biogeochemical drivers. Skipjack mercury levels display a fivefold spatial gradient, with maximum concentrations in the northwest near Asia, intermediate values in the east, and the lowest levels in the west, southwest, and central Pacific. Large spatial differences can be explained by the depth of the seawater methylmercury peak near low-oxygen zones, leading to enhanced tuna mercury concentrations in regions where oxygen depletion is shallow. Despite this natural biogeochemical control, the mercury hotspot in tuna caught near Asia is explained by elevated atmospheric mercury concentrations and/or mercury river inputs to the coastal shelf. While we cannot ignore the legacy mercury contribution from other regions to the Pacific Ocean (e.g., North America and Europe), our results suggest that recent anthropogenic mercury release, which is currently largest in Asia, contributes directly to present-day human mercury exposure.

Stable mercury concentrations of tropical tuna in the south western Pacific ocean: An 18-year monitoring study.

Global anthropogenic mercury (Hg) emissions to the atmosphere since industrialization are widely considered to be responsible for a significant increase in surface ocean Hg concentrations. Still unclear is how those inputs are converted into toxic methylmercury (MeHg) then transferred and biomagnified in oceanic food webs. We used a unique long-term and continuous dataset to explore the temporal Hg trend and variability of three tropical tuna species (yellowfin, bigeye, and skipjack) from the southwestern Pacific Ocean between 2001 and 2018 (n = 590). Temporal trends of muscle nitrogen (δ15N) and carbon (δ13C) stable isotope ratios, amino acid (AA) δ15N values and oceanographic variables were also investigated to examine the potential influence of trophic, biogeochemical and physical processes on the temporal variability of tuna Hg concentrations. For the three species, we detected significant inter-annual variability but no significant long-term trend for Hg concentrations. Inter-annual variability was related to the variability in tuna sampled lengths among years and to tuna muscle δ15N and δ13C values. Complementary AA- and model-estimated phytoplankton δ15N values suggested the influence of baseline processes with enhanced tuna Hg concentrations observed when dinitrogen fixers prevail, possibly fuelling baseline Hg methylation and/or MeHg bioavailability at the base of the food web. Our results show that MeHg trends in top predators do not necessary capture the increasing Hg concentrations in surface waters suspected at the global oceanic scale due to the complex and variable processes governing Hg deposition, methylation, bioavailability and biomagnification. This illustrates the need for long-term standardized monitoring programs of marine biota worldwide.

Trends in tuna carbon isotopes suggest global changes in pelagic phytoplankton communities.

Considerable uncertainty remains over how increasing atmospheric CO2 and anthropogenic climate changes are affecting open-ocean marine ecosystems from phytoplankton to top predators. Biological time series data are thus urgently needed for the world's oceans. Here, we use the carbon stable isotope composition of tuna to provide a first insight into the existence of global trends in complex ecosystem dynamics and changes in the oceanic carbon cycle. From 2000 to 2015, considerable declines in δ13 C values of 0.8‰-2.5‰ were observed across three tuna species sampled globally, with more substantial changes in the Pacific Ocean compared to the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Tuna recorded not only the Suess effect, that is, fossil fuel-derived and isotopically light carbon being incorporated into marine ecosystems, but also recorded profound changes at the base of marine food webs. We suggest a global shift in phytoplankton community structure, for example, a reduction in 13 C-rich phytoplankton such as diatoms, and/or a change in phytoplankton physiology during this period, although this does not rule out other concomitant changes at higher levels in the food webs. Our study establishes tuna δ13 C values as a candidate essential ocean variable to assess complex ecosystem responses to climate change at regional to global scales and over decadal timescales. Finally, this time series will be invaluable in calibrating and validating global earth system models to project changes in marine biota.

A Model of Mercury Distribution in Tuna from the Western and Central Pacific Ocean: Influence of Physiology, Ecology and Environmental Factors.

Information on ocean scale drivers of methylmercury levels and variability in tuna is scarce, yet crucial in the context of anthropogenic mercury (Hg) inputs and potential threats to human health. Here we assess Hg concentrations in three commercial tuna species (bigeye, yellowfin, and albacore, n = 1000) from the Western and Central Pacific Ocean (WCPO). Models were developed to map regional Hg variance and understand the main drivers. Mercury concentrations are enriched in southern latitudes (10°S-20°S) relative to the equator (0°-10°S) for each species, with bigeye exhibiting the strongest spatial gradients. Fish size is the primary factor explaining Hg variance but physical oceanography also contributes, with higher Hg concentrations in regions exhibiting deeper thermoclines. Tuna trophic position and oceanic primary productivity were of weaker importance. Predictive models perform well in the Central Equatorial Pacific and Hawaii, but underestimate Hg concentrations in the Eastern Pacific. A literature review from the global ocean indicates that size tends to govern tuna Hg concentrations, however regional information on vertical habitats, methylmercury production, and/or Hg inputs are needed to understand Hg distribution at a broader scale. Finally, this study establishes a geographical context of Hg levels to weigh the risks and benefits of tuna consumption in the WCPO.

Socioeconomic and environmental determinants of dengue transmission in an urban setting: An ecological study in Nouméa, New Caledonia.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is a mosquito-borne virus that causes extensive morbidity and economic loss in many tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Often present in cities, dengue virus is rapidly spreading due to urbanization, climate change and increased human movements. Dengue cases are often heterogeneously distributed throughout cities, suggesting that small-scale determinants influence dengue urban transmission. A better understanding of these determinants is crucial to efficiently target prevention measures such as vector control and education. The aim of this study was to determine which socioeconomic and environmental determinants were associated with dengue incidence in an urban setting in the Pacific. METHODOLOGY: An ecological study was performed using data summarized by neighborhood (i.e. the neighborhood is the unit of analysis) from two dengue epidemics (2008-2009 and 2012-2013) in the city of Nouméa, the capital of New Caledonia. Spatial patterns and hotspots of dengue transmission were assessed using global and local Moran's I statistics. Multivariable negative binomial regression models were used to investigate the association between dengue incidence and various socioeconomic and environmental factors throughout the city. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The 2008-2009 epidemic was spatially structured, with clusters of high and low incidence neighborhoods. In 2012-2013, dengue incidence rates were more homogeneous throughout the city. In all models tested, higher dengue incidence rates were consistently associated with lower socioeconomic status (higher unemployment, lower revenue or higher percentage of population born in the Pacific, which are interrelated). A higher percentage of apartments was associated with lower dengue incidence rates during both epidemics in all models but one. A link between vegetation coverage and dengue incidence rates was also detected, but the link varied depending on the model used. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates a robust spatial association between dengue incidence rates and socioeconomic status across the different neighborhoods of the city of Nouméa. Our findings provide useful information to guide policy and help target dengue prevention efforts where they are needed most.

Net primary productivity estimates and environmental variables in the Arctic Ocean: An assessment of coupled physical-biogeochemical models.

The relative skill of 21 regional and global biogeochemical models was assessed in terms of how well the models reproduced observed net primary productivity (NPP) and environmental variables such as nitrate concentration (NO3), mixed layer depth (MLD), euphotic layer depth (Zeu), and sea ice concentration, by comparing results against a newly updated, quality-controlled in situ NPP database for the Arctic Ocean (1959-2011). The models broadly captured the spatial features of integrated NPP (iNPP) on a pan-Arctic scale. Most models underestimated iNPP by varying degrees in spite of overestimating surface NO3, MLD, and Zeu throughout the regions. Among the models, iNPP exhibited little difference over sea ice condition (ice-free versus ice-influenced) and bottom depth (shelf versus deep ocean). The models performed relatively well for the most recent decade and toward the end of Arctic summer. In the Barents and Greenland Seas, regional model skill of surface NO3 was best associated with how well MLD was reproduced. Regionally, iNPP was relatively well simulated in the Beaufort Sea and the central Arctic Basin, where in situ NPP is low and nutrients are mostly depleted. Models performed less well at simulating iNPP in the Greenland and Chukchi Seas, despite the higher model skill in MLD and sea ice concentration, respectively. iNPP model skill was constrained by different factors in different Arctic Ocean regions. Our study suggests that better parameterization of biological and ecological microbial rates (phytoplankton growth and zooplankton grazing) are needed for improved Arctic Ocean biogeochemical modeling.

Mass mortality events in atoll lagoons: environmental control and increased future vulnerability.

Coral reefs and lagoons worldwide are vulnerable environments. However, specific geomorphological reef types (fringing, barrier, atoll, bank for the main ones) can be vulnerable to specific disturbances that will not affect most other reefs. This has implications for local management and science priorities. Several geomorphologically closed atolls of the Pacific Ocean have experienced in recent decades mass benthic and pelagic lagoonal life mortalities, likely triggered by unusually calm weather conditions lasting for several weeks. These events, although poorly known, reported, and characterized, pose a major threat for resource sustainability. Based on a sample of eleven events on eight atolls from the central South Pacific occurring between 1993 and 2012, the conservative environmental thresholds required to trigger such events are identified using sea surface temperature, significant wave height and wind stress satellite data. Using these thresholds, spatial maps of potential risk are produced for the central South Pacific region, with the highest risk zone lying north of Tuamotu Archipelago. A regional climate model, which risk map compares well with observations over the recent period (r=0.97), is then used to downscale the projected future climate. This allows us to estimate the potential change in risk by the end of the 21st century and highlights a relative risk increase of up to 60% for the eastern Tuamotu atolls. However, the small sample size used to train the analysis led to the identification of conservative thresholds that overestimated the observed risk. The results of this study suggest that long-term monitoring of the biophysical conditions of the lagoons at risk would enable more precise identification of the physical thresholds and better understanding of the biological processes involved in these rare, but consequential, mass mortality events.